Saturday 14 May 2016

Post No: 31

Date: 14.05.2016

Topic: How we used to trade and how are we trading now?

The Technology has brought many facilities to the human mankind. In the earlier days the buying and selling of goods was used by barter system. Later on, the civilized society brought into the mechanism called “currency”.  But still there were many difficulties to buying and selling of goods.

What is a market?

It is a place where both buyers and sellers meet. But when a buyer wants to buy a particular goods or any article, the buyer needs to know the price offered by all the sellers. The buyer will have to look into the prices, so that he gets a best price in the market. Generally in the financial markets terminology, the buyer at which he is willing to buy is known as “bid” price. As a buyer, it is obvious that we will look into the lowest price in the market. On the same lines, the seller who wants to sell something will look for a better price to sell or the highest price for his goods.  Therefore, a buyer will look for a lowest price and a seller will look for a highest price. The selling price at which the seller is willing to sell is known as “offer” price in the financial markets.

What were the methods to buy and sell in olden days?



In the olden days, there used to be an “open outcry system”. This open outcry system can be seen even in today’s world, when we go out for buying vegetables in some parts of the world. The open outcry system for financial markets also resembles the same vegetable markets, but with certain modifications. To understand, how an open outcry system appears, we can look into the following diagram:




I have tried my best to draw a diagram, instead of copying and pasting from somewhere else. All the sellers will be standing in the well (not really a well of water) typed system. All the buyers will be watching those sellers around the pool / well. The buyers and sellers will be using “hand signals” / “special sign signals” or verbal ‘bid’ and ‘offer’ prices. One of the major disadvantages was the information in one market would not flow to other nearby markets.

What is the present way of buying and selling?

For the financial markets, now with the rapid and innovation of technology, for buying and selling of financial instruments, there are many exchanges. These exchanges enable both the buyers and sellers meet and give their quotes through electronic means. They provide us a platform, where we can view the various bid (buying) prices and also the offer prices (selling). These exchanges use “electronic algorithms” to enable trading (buying / selling) mechanism.

What are the risks in trading with exchange and without exchange?

Type of risks
In one to one or without exchange
Trading by using Exchange
Contract execution
No guarantee that the contract to buy or sell will be executed
It can be avoided
Price risk
There is no guarantee that we can buy at the agreed price (if we are buying in future through a forward contract)
It can be avoided
Legal risk
If we are having a positive MTM, the counterparty may can cancel the contract or may not honor the contract
It can be avoided
Operational risk
The counterparty may cancel the contract or may not stick to the prices or procedures or failure to honor the contract
It can be avoided
Similarly, the parties may not have trust on each other, it would invite many other risks like settlement risk, liquidity risk etc from both parties (buyer and seller)

For any doubts, contact at my personal mail id: cfa.surya@gmail.com


Friday 6 May 2016



Let us measure the MTMs and understand where they lead to….FOR BANKS

As we understand in a forward contract, there are two parties, one is the buyer (party who has taken a long position) and the other one is the seller (party who takes short position). When the forward contracts are marked to market, based on the market value / spot price of the underlying asset, the parties in the forward contracts will have either Positive MTM or Negative MTM.

Having Positive MTM can be described as receivables (asset) as on that date and the Negative MTM refers to payables (Liability). Let us take one forward contract and understand the implications of the forward contract to Banks.

Current Date:
06.05.2016 (Assumption)
Forward price fixed by an Exporter with the Bank for USD to INR
$100,000 (The Bank agrees to buy USD from an exporter) The exporter agrees to sell $100,000 to the Bank.
Forward Contract price
$66.00
Date of Forward Contract /agreement
06.04.2016
Date of Delivery
06.04.2017
Items to be delivered
The exporter has to deliver $100,000 to the Bank
Place of Delivery
OTC contract, at one of the agreed branches
Today’s price /( INR / USD quote)
Rs68 per USD
Today’s MTM for the Bank
The MTM is positive by Rs200,000
Today’s MTM for the exporter (seller of the forward contract)
The MTM is negative by Rs200,000
Risk for the Bank
Counterparty Credit Risk (The definition of Counterparty Credit Risk) is already discussed earlier in my blog)
What does the positive MTM for Bank
It is receivable for the Bank (An Asset is created for the Bank – off Balance sheet)


Capital Adequacy Guidelines in this regard
Let us discuss the risks to the Bank in this regard..
1.      The exporter may not sell the USD to the Bank (Because he can sell in the market for Rs68 per USD,  instead of selling at Rs66 per USD to Bank)
2.      This means, the Bank may lose the Positive MTM (asset impairment)
3.      By the date of delivery, there are chances that the exporter’s credit worthiness may also go down.
4.      Further depreciation of Rupee against USD, would lead to increase of positive MTM for the Bank.
5.      This implies, the current exposure of the Bank is Rs200000 and the rupee depreciation may lead to future exposure of the Bank
6.      For creating all types of assets, the Bank has to provide capital. Let us look into the capital charge in these transactions
Total capital charge = (Current Exposure + Potential Future Exposure) x capital adequacy percentage in the respective country
ð  Current Exposure = Rs200000
ð  Potential future exposure: This is nothing but likely increase of the MTM of the Bank. The Bank is already having a positive MTM of Rs200000 and with the depreciation of rupee, the MTM of the Bank may increase in future
ð  How to compute the Potential Future Exposure (PFE): Banks use an add – on factor for computing the PFE. For all the forward contracts having a maturity within 1 year, the Banks use an add-on factor of 1%. This means, the Potential Future Exposure (likely chances of further positive MTM) is 1% of Notional Amount of the forward contract.
ð  Notional amount of forward contract = $100000 x Rs66 = Rs6600000
ð  PFE = 1% of Rs6600000
ð  PFE = 66000

ð  Total Exposure of the Bank = Current Exposure + Potential Future Exposure
ð  Current Exposure ( Rs200000) + Potential Future Exposure (Rs66000)
ð  Total exposure of the Bank in this Forward Contract = Rs266000
ð  Capital Charge = 266000 x 9% capital charge
ð  Capital Charge = Rs23940

LET US NOT DO THE THINGS MECHANICALLY….LET US UNDERSTAND THE CONCEPTS AND LOGIC BEHIND THE RULE